Levasseur, Baptiste (ONERA), Bertrand, Sylvain (ONERA)

Impact Probability Maps Computation and Risk Analysis for 3D Ground Infrastructures Due to UAV Operations

Scheduled for presentation during the Regular Session "Safety, Security and Reliability" (FrB4), Friday, June 18, 2021, 11:40−12:00, Naoussa

2021 International Conference on Unmanned Aircraft Systems (ICUAS), June 15-18, 2021, Athens, Greece

This information is tentative and subject to change. Compiled on April 20, 2024

Abstract

This paper proposes a methodology for computing the probability of impact on 3D infrastructures (eg. buildings) in the event of an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) failure during a flight. This information is essential in risk analysis, whether for the preparation of a mission or for the definition of safety rules by regulatory authorities. Generation of impact probability maps on the infrastructures is based on Monte Carlo simulations involving a dynamic model of a fixed-wing UAV. Two cases are considered to represent different types of structures. The first corresponds to the presence of an infinite vertical plane, a textbook case allowing thresholds to be set conservatively. The second corresponds to a box placed on the ground that can generically encompass many types of infrastructures at risk. Generated probability maps of impact on the infrastructures are given and analyzed for these two cases. The evaluation of the kinetic energy of impact, a fundamental element in the evaluation of damage to buildings, is also addressed.